Australia's pathway to net zero by 2050, as modelled by the Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water, relies on a significant contribution from carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology in the 2040s.
The problem: no CCS facility in Australia has ever operated at the scale assumed in the modelling. The Gorgon CCS project — the world's largest — has consistently underperformed its targets, capturing approximately 30% of what was promised.
Key findings:
- Government modelling assumes 50+ Mt CO₂ captured annually by 2045
- Current Australian CCS capacity: approximately 4 Mt CO₂/year
- Required scale-up factor: 12.5x in under 20 years
- CSIRO assessment of CCS feasibility: 'high uncertainty'
- Number of operational large-scale CCS facilities globally: 30
- Number required under government scenario: 200+
The Climate Change Authority, in a submission to the Senate Environment Committee, noted that the government's modelling 'relies on optimistic assumptions about technology deployment that are not supported by current evidence'.